Российский импорт непреклонно догоняет экспорт

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Впервые с начала 2016 г. месячный профицит торгового баланса превысил 9 млрд. долларов. Благодаря более высоким ценам на нефть экспорт товаров из страны в ноябре вырос до 26,6 млрд. долларов.

Импорт товаров в страну снизился по сравнению с октябрем на 800 млн. долларов и составил 17,5 млрд. В основном снижение коснулось торговли со странами дальнего зарубежья.

Пока данных за декабрь нет, но если сделать подсчеты на основе оценочных данных Центрального банка по итогам всего года, то профицит торгового баланса в декабре составил 9,2 млрд. долларов. Товаров за рубеж в первый месяц зимы было продано на 28,5 млрд. долларов, а куплено на 19,3 млрд. долларов.

Таким образом, объем декабрьского экспорта и импорта показал рекордное годовое значение. Столь значимые показатели по импорту не наблюдались с 2014 г., а по экспорту с конца 2015 г.

Объем импорта к экспорту (%)


6

Источник: Банк России; расчеты компании «Инвестиционные Партнеры»

Стоит отметить, что импорт восстанавливается куда более быстрыми темпами, чем экспорт. К примеру, в 2013 г. объем ввезенных в страну товаров составлял 65,4% от объема вывезенных. По итогам 2016 г. он поднялся уже до 68,6%. Однако это динамика не последних двух лет, она началась еще в начале столетия — импорт постепенно, но непреклонно, приближается к экспорту.

Резюме

Для нашей страны это плохо тем, что из-за плохой диверсификации экономики, мы становимся все более зависимы от цен на сырье. Какие-либо более-менее существенные колебания могут привести к оттоку капитала из России, а это гораздо сильнее ударит по рублю, так как приток иностранной валюты ослабевает.

Выходом из этой ситуаций может быть рост экспорта, однако для этого нужны конкурентноспособные товары, коих пока нет.

 

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