Как формировался тренд по нефти

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«Кто владеет информацией, тот владеет миром». Средства массовой информации имеют колоссальное влияние на общественно мнение и мировые тренды.

Восходящий тренд по нефти

Чтобы сформировать тренд одной позитивной новости мало, так как о ней скоро забудут, поэтому надо подпитывать движение новыми событиями.

  1. Котировки «черного золота» после обвала закономерно откорректировались вверх.
  2. После чего члены ОПЕК решили провести встречу, где была достигнута предварительная договоренность о сокращении добычи. Таким образом, рынки заглотили наживку.
  3. В промежутке между встречами ОПЕК периодически вбрасывалась противоречивая информация для выноса ненужных позиций.
  4. Встреча ОПЕК. Договорились. Однако если целью является более высокие цены на нефть, то на ней нельзя подписывать соглашение со странами, в него не входящими. То есть произошел процесс «подсекания» и дальнейшего «вытягивания рыбы из водоема».
  5. Сделка с производителями вне картеля должна была поддержать восходящий тренд, что, в принципе, и произошло.

Теперь для подпитки движения необходима новая информация. Это, к примеру, могут быть спекуляции на счет холодной зимы. А вот если этого не будет, то в скором будущем мы можем увидеть охлаждение тренда и его разворота.

Резюме

Аналогичная ситуация наблюдалась на рынках в период обвала нефтяных цен. Так как крупнейшие фонды мира имеют огромные суммы под управлением, то для зарабатывания денег им необходимы существенные колебания котировок, а их без СМИ не достичь.

Также мы бы обратили внимание на то, что крупнейшие участники рынка вышли из «черного золота».

Gross-позиции ТОП-4 трейдеров на NYMEX


Failed to find diagram 3944.

Источник: cftc.gov

 

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Другая статистика:

  1. Позиции трейдеров по нефти (NYMEX)
  2. Позиции трейдеров по нефти  (Европа)
  3. Позиции трейдеров по рублю
  4. Позиции трейдеров по золоту

 


Изображение: interfax.ru

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