Инвесторы избавляются от гособлигаций США, предпочитая им акции

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Распродажа государственного долга США продолжается уже 4 месяца. Так с июня 2016 страны по всему миру сократили свои вложения в гособлигации Америки почти на 242 млрд. долларов. По итогам второго месяца осени общий объем госдолга, принадлежащий другим странам, опустился до 6038 млрд. долларов.

Объем госдолга США, принадлежащий другим государствам 


1

Источник: treasury.gov

Основными продавцами являются Китай, Бельгия и Россия, с середины лета они избавились от бумаг на 125, 39 и 16 млрд. долларов соответственно. Пекин в последний год активно борется с оттоком капитала из страны, на фоне чего золотовалютные резервы Поднебесной сократились почти на 800 млрд. долларов.

Наша страна начала постепенно отказываться от инвестиций в долговые бумаги США с начала 2016 г. Так впервые с мая 2015 г. объем размещенных средств в американских «трежериз» упал ниже 80 млрд. долларов.

Вполне возможно, что сокращение вложений в гособлигации Соединенных Штатов вызвано ожиданием центральных банков мира дальнейшего ужесточения монетарной политики ФРС, что неизбежно приведет к падению стоимости уже выпущенных долговых бумаг и увеличению доходности по ним.

Однако тенденция на сокращение инвестиций в гособлигации США пока не смущает участников рынка и они продолжают покупать акции американских компаний. Вот уже 3 месяца к ряду иностранцы имели в своих портфелях больше акций, чем облигаций.

Вложения иностранцев в гособлигации и акции США (млрд. дол.)


2

Источник: treasury.gov

Резюме

Согласно данным, опубликованным Федрезервом, в следующем году процентная ставка в США должна подняться до 1,4%. Если ФРС выполнит свои обещания, то стоимость уже выпущенных гособлигаций продолжит снижаться.

По итогам прошлой недели можно сделать вывод, что рынки всерьез настроены на счет ужесточения монетарной политики в США. Поэтому, в ближайшие месяцы, мы можем увидеть более слабый спрос на долговые бумаги Соединенных штатов.

 

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