Goldman Sachs: нефть может опуститься до 43 долларов за бочку

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По мнению инвестиционного банка Goldman Sachs, шансы на подписание соглашения о сокращении добычи нефти выросли, но все еще невелики. Другой американский банк Citigroup считает, что вероятность гораздо выше 50%, а лимит в 33 млн. баррелей в сутки приведет к дефициту на рынке и росту нефтяных цен еще на 30% в течение года.

В случае если ОПЕК провалит переговоры, то котировки «черного золота» могут опуститься до уровней в 43 доллара за бочку, говорит Goldman Sachs. А заключение сделки, на что надеются в Citi, поднимет их до 65 долларов за баррель.

Рынок уже находится в стадии ребалансировки, считают в Citi, и этот процесс проходит гораздо быстрее, чем многие думают.

Рядовые инвесторы скептически настроены по поводу сокращения производства — фонды, инвестирующие в нефть, вот уже 5 дней подряд фиксируют отток капитала. К примеру, из ETF USO* вывели около 300 млн. долларов.

Чистый поток средств в ETF, инвестирующий в нефть (USO, млн. дол.) 


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Источник: etf.com

Резюме

Договорятся в ОПЕК или нет, но для стабилизации нефтяных цен нужен профицит не более чем в 1 млн. баррелей в сутки. За последние 18 лет именно такой объем спокойно «переваривается» рынком и не приводил к падению котировок.

Баланс спроса и предложения на рынке нефти (млн. бар. в сутки)


Источник: eia.org

Не стоит забывать и то, что инвестиционные банки тоже являются участниками рынка, а тем самым заинтересованной стороной. Напомним, что в феврале этого года Goldman Sachs предсказывал нефть ниже 30 долларов за баррель, как раз за считанные дни до разворота на сырьевом рынке.

Схожие по тематике статьи:

  1. Смогут ли члены ОПЕК снизить добычу?
  2. Заморозив добычу, ОПЕК потеряет долю рынка

Другая статистика:

  1. Баланс спроса и предложения на рынке нефти
  2. Позиции трейдеров по нефти (NYMEX)
  3. Позиции трейдеров по нефти (Europe)

 


В статье использовались материалы: Big Banks Diverge on OPEC Effect (The Wall Street Journal, 2016)

Автор: Tim Puko

Изображение: ntv.ru

 

ETF USO — фонд, паи которого торгуются на бирже, и вкладывающий средства в нефтяные фьючерсы нефти марки WTI.

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