Банки представляют существенную опасность для мировой экономики

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Крупнейшие банки мира аккумулировали на своих балансах активы соразмерные ВВП ряда стран. К примеру, активы J.P. Morgan Chase превышают 2,4 трлн. долларов, Bank of America – 2,2 трлн., HSBC – 2,4 трлн., Deutsche Bank – 1,8 трлн. Для сравнения, номинальный ВВП Великобритании по итогам 2015 года составил 2,8 трлн., Франции 2,4 трлн. долларов, России 1,3 трлн. долларов.

Так как банковская система считается «кровеносной системой» экономики, то в периоды кризисов финансовые институты принимают основной удар на себя.

Во время последнего общемирового кризиса 2008 года, главной головоломкой для регуляторов были неликвидные и «токсичные» активы банков. Если тогда проблему удалось решить путем объединения кредитных организаций, то сейчас укрупняться уже некуда.

Если в США дела у финансовых организаций обстоят неплохо, то банковская система Европы дает трещину. По итогам 2015 года крупнейшие финансовые организации получили существенные убытки.

Финансовые результаты банков за 2015 год


 

Первые тревожные звонки уже прозвучали: в начале текущего года немецкий Deutsche Bank столкнулся с кризисом доверия. Тогда инвесторы, опасаясь, что ввиду полученных убытков банк не сможет погасить купоны по выпущенным облигациям, устроили их распродажу.

На текущий момент претензии американских властей к европейским банкам превышают 77,5 млрд. долларов. Минюст США может взыскать с Royal Bank of Scotland до 32,1 млрд. долларов, с швейцарского Credit Suisse до 14,1 млрд. долларов.

Претензии Минюста США к банкам


bloomberg

Источник: bloomberg.com

Сегодня стало известно, Deutsche Bank не готов заплатить в казну Соединенных Штатов 14 млрд. долларов  для того, чтобы урегулировать спор. Вполне возможно, что такого удара банк просто не выдержит.

Также страх вызывает и уровень просроченных кредитов в Италии. По данным Всемирного банка в 2015 году их масштаб достиг 18% кредитного портфеля.

Резюме

Ввиду того что мировая экономика прибавляет с каждым годом все меньше и меньше, скрывать «токсичные» активы становится все труднее. А так как банки тесно связаны друг с другом, то крах даже не столь значительного игрока, может привести к необратимым последствиям, которые, на наш взгляд, уже будет не спасти печатным станком.

Регуляторам необходимо начать активнее вести политику по очищению балансов кредитных организаций, а чем дольше это затягивается, тем больнее будет падать.

Смущают и объемы претензий американских властей к европейским банкам. Смогут ли они выдержать удар в 77 млрд. долларов, является большим вопросом. И не запустит ли решение суда о выплате штрафов «эффект домино»?! Надеемся, что это не новые методы расчищения рынка от конкурентов.

 

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