Деньги печатает ЕЦБ, а выигрывает от этого США

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(The Wall Street Journal) – Европейский центральный банк в недавнем прошлом запустил программу по выкупу корпоративных облигаций с целью поддержать экономику Еврозоны. Однако одним из главных бенефициаров является американский долговой рынок.

Столкнувшись с уменьшающейся доходностью, некоторые инвесторы решают продать свои корпоративные облигации ЕЦБ и перевести деньги за океан, где доходность выше и она не столь уязвима к поведению центрального банка.

Спреды между доходностью по 10-летним облигациям США и Германии


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С тех пор как европейский регулятор объявил в марте о своих планах по выкупу облигаций, спред между корпоративными и государственными долговыми бумагами в Европе снижался быстрее, чем в США. Однако эта тенденция поменялась за последние недели.

Это стало возможным после того, как несколько крупных инвесторов продали долговые бумаги европейских компаний и перевели капиталы в Соединенные Штаты.

С июня текущего года чистый приток средств на американский долговой рынок опережает соответствующий приток на европейский рынок почти на 2 млрд. долларов, согласно данным EPFR Global.

WSJ

Источник: The Wall Street Journal

Как результат, стоимость заимствования для крупнейших компаний США остается на рекордно низких уровнях, несмотря на ожидания по повышению процентной ставки со стороны Федерального Резерва.

Марк Киесел главный инвестиционный менеджер Pacific Investment Management Co. сказал, что он покупал долговые ценные бумаги европейских и британских компаний в ожидании, что ЕЦБ и Банк Англии выйдут на рынок. Сейчас он продает эти бумаги и переводит средства в Америку.

Согласно данным Tradeweb к сегодняшнему моменту уже более 30% облигаций с высоким кредитным рейтингом торгуется в отрицательной зоне, а у остальных 84% компаний доходность ниже 1%.

Резюме

В отличие от Банка Англии, ЕЦб и Банка Японии, ФРС не проводит никаких стимулирующих мер, а наоборот планирует повысить процентную ставку. Сложившаяся ситуация по логике вещей должна привести к удорожанию курса доллара по отношению к его основным конкурентам, только если регуляторы всего мира не перешли к ручному управлению валютных курсов (кулуарно).

Также от печатного станка должны выиграть и рынки акций, так как в долговые бумаги вкладывать средства становится крайне не выгодно.

 

Другая статистика:

  1. Спреды между доходностями по 10-летними облигациями США и России
  2. Спреды между доходностями по 10-летними и 2-летним облигациям России

 


Сокращенный перевод статьи: Bond Investors Cash Out in Europe, Head to U.S. (Christopher Whittall, The Wall Street Journal, 2016)

Резюме в редакции автора статьи на русском языке. 

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