Проблемы греческого долга вернулись

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Проблемы Греции вернулись. Инвесторы распродают ее облигации, опасаясь, что страна не сможет заплатить по долгам уже этим летом.

Распродажи начались после того как греческое правительство опять не может договориться с кредиторами из Еврозоны и Международного валютного фонда.

Встреча с МВФ намечена на следующую неделю, однако не известно какую позицию займет США, с ее новой администрацией, ведь именно Америка имеет наибольший вес при голосовании.

Часть госдолга Греции, принадлежащая частным кредиторам и с погашением в июле, на прошлой неделе имела доходность в 6%. Однако на этой неделе она уже подскочила до 9,5% на фоне того, что инвесторы стали сомневаться в платежеспособности страны.

Греция сможет продержаться без новой помощи до июля, после чего ей необходима новая «инъекция». Для того чтобы ее получить, стране необходимо выполнить ряд условий, к примеру, урезать расходы бюджета. Афины усердно сопротивляются этому. На что Германия ответила, что не будет больше помогать Греции без МВФ.

График погашения госдолга Греции (млн. евро)


4

Источник: The Wall Street Journal

За весь 2017 г. Афинам необходимо отдать кредиторам 25,1 млрд. евро. Пик выплат приходится на первые 7 месяцев. В марте страна должна перечислить 4,7 млрд. евро, а в июле 8,3 млрд. и именно его все боятся. Из этой суммы 2,1 млрд. евро принадлежит частным заемщикам, 290 млн. — МВФ и 3,9 млрд. — ЕЦБ.

График погашения госдолга Греции

Общий долг Греции равен примерно 323 млрд. евро, что соразмерно 177% ВВП страны.

Резюме

За весь 2016 г. доходы бюджета Греции составили 54 млрд. евро. Получается, что примерно половину средств необходимо будет направить на погашение задолженности. Таким образом, без перекредитования страна вряд ли сможет расплатиться по долгам.

Однако рефинансирование вряд ли поможет Афинам, так как бюджет Греции все еще дефицитен и ей не из чего накапливать, чтобы постепенно уменьшать свою долговую нагрузку. Поэтому новый транш только в очередной раз отсрочит решение греческой проблемы.

 

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В статье использовались материалы: Greece’s Deadlocked Debt Talks Unnerve Investors (The Wall Street Journal, 2017)

Фото: CNBC

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