Уже к маю Россия может остаться без Резервного фонда

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Резервный фонд закончил 2016 г. с потерями в 2,7 трлн. рублей. Если по итогам декабря 2015 г. его объем составлял 3,6 трлн. рублей, то на 1 января 2017 г. он опустился ниже 1 трлн. до 972 млрд. рублей. С пиковых значений двухлетней давности Резервный фонд упал на 4,9 трлн. рублей.

На сегодняшний день средства фонда размещены в 3-х валютах: в долларах, евро и фунтах по 7,62 млрд., 6,71 млрд. и 1,1 млрд. соответственно.

На финансирование бюджетных нужд из 2,7 трлн. рублей было направлено почти 2,2 трлн. рублей. Остальные 531,54 млрд. рублей было потеряно из-за укрепления национальной валюты и только на декабрь месяц пришлось 93,7 млрд.

Объемы Резервного фонда России (млрд. руб.)


10

Источник: Минфин РФ

Согласно данным Министерства финансов по итогам 11 месяцев 2016 г. дефицит бюджета страны достиг 1,8 трлн. рублей. Таким образом, можно предположить, что по итогам 2016 г. расходная часть бюджета превысит доходную на 2,7 трлн. рублей.

В среднем в 2016 г. из резервов России тратилось 225 млрд. рублей в месяц. Получается, что примерно к маю страна окажется без средств в фонде и переключится на Фонд национального благосостояния.

Резюме

Несмотря на то что нефтяные цены по-прежнему выше 40 долларов за баррель, бюджет России будет дефицитным до тех пор пока котировки нефти марки Urals не поднимутся к 58-60 долларам, если принимать в расчет заявление Владимира Путина о том, что каждые дополнительные 1о долларов к стоимости нефти принесут в казну внеочередные 1,75 млрд. рублей.

 

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Другая статистика:

  1. Исполнение бюджета России
  2. Резервные фонды России
  3. Аукционы ОФЗ

 

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