Почему сланцевая нефть обвалила рынок?

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Буквально за 3 года никому неизвестная сланцевая нефть превратилась в основную причину  обвала котировок «черного золота». Если в начале 2011 г. в США добывалось около 1,7 млн. баррелей в сутки, то к середине 2014 г. уже 4,7 млн. баррелей, а в марте 2015 г. был установлен исторический рекорд объемом в 5,5 млн. баррелей.

Добыча сланцевой нефти стала популярна благодаря своей быстрой отдаче, всего 2-4 года. К примеру, традиционное месторождение требует около 10 лет для возврата инвестиций, а глубоководное бурение 11-14.

Согласно расчетам Rystad Energy сланцевая добыча не имеет аналогов по норме прибыли. Так при стоимости сырья в 90 долларов за бочку, она составляет 35%, а при 70 долларах — 24%. Для сравнения, глубоководная норма составляет 13% и 9% соответственно. Если взять эти же пропорции, то получается, что при цене нефти в 50 долларов за бочку, норма прибыли для сланцевых компаний снижается до 13%.

Норма прибыли для месторождений


9

Источник: Rystad Energy

По этой причине мы видим активизацию на одном из основных месторождений сланцевой нефти — Permian. Однако если жизненный цикл обычного месторождения длится десятилетиями, то сланцевого несколько лет.

Если верить данным Министерства энергетики США, то доказанные запасы сланцевой нефти на месторождении Permian составляют 782 млн. баррелей. При текущих объемах добычи их хватит всего на 391 день.

Резюме

Быстрая отдача от инвестиций позволила взрывными темпами увеличить добычу сланцевой нефти, что в итоге вылилось в огромный профицит сырья.

На наш взгляд, долгосрочную опасность для рынка нефти несут месторождения Bakken и Eagle Ford. Там доказанные запасы сырья превышают 9,3 млрд. баррелей, что эквивалентно четверти всех резервов США. Вот если там начнется рост добычи, то это может быть тревожным сигналом для рынка.

 

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  2. Уже к маю Россия может остаться без Резервного фонда
  3. Сокращение добычи нефти идет опережающими темпами
  4. Доллар не пользуется популярностью у банков

Другая статистика:

  1. Добыча сланцевой нефти
  2. Количество буровых вышек в США

 

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