В новый год с прежними взглядами на нефть

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В новый год участники торгов по нефти решили войти, не совершая каких-либо серьезных изменений в своих портфелях. Позиции хедж-фондов практически не поменялись. По состоянию на 27 декабря количество их длинных позиций составляло 358,6 тыс. контрактов, в то время как объем коротких был немногим ниже 50,7 тыс. контрактов.

Позиции Managed Money Funds


Failed to find diagram 4446.

Источник: cftc.gov

Производители и нефтетрейдеры продолжили сокращать свое присутствие на фьючерсном рынке, за неделю они закрыли почти 8 тыс. длинных контрактов и 1,8 тыс. коротких . Таким образом, на наш взгляд, они постепенно склоняются к тому, что нефть будет дорожать.

А вот спред между ставками на падение и ставками на рост у крупнейших 4-ки и 8-ки трейдеров Нью-Йоркской товарной биржи опять увеличился. У топ восьмерки на долю коротких позиций приходится 21,7% портфеля, а на долю длинных 20,2%. Тем самым разница между ними достигла 1,5 процентных пункта.

Gross-позиции ТОП-8 трейдеров на NYMEX


Failed to find diagram 4445.

Источник: cftc.gov

Если посмотреть на общую картину среди отчитывающихся участников рынка, то у них пока преобладают ставки на снижение нефтяных котировок.

Резюме

Несмотря на то что крупнейшие трейдеры постепенно увеличивают свои короткие позиции, рост «черного золота» может еще продолжиться, на фоне чего они продолжат незаметно для рынка увеличивать свои ставки, а вот после этого произойдет разворот.

Если посмотреть на примере 2015-2016 гг., то лаг в смене тенденции произошел через 2 месяца после того, как основные 4 и 8 трейдеров «перевернулись» в своих ожиданиях и заняли длинные позиции по нефти.

Все графики по позициям трейдеров

 

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  2. Новый год легче встречается в долларах
  3. Рентабельность добычи сланцевой нефти — 35,4 дол. за бочку
  4. Борьба за рынок газа Китая только начинается
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Другая статистика:

  1. Позиции трейдеров по нефти
  2. Позиции трейдеров по нефти (Europe)
  3. Позиции трейдеров по рублю
  4. Позиции трейдеров по золоту

 

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