Мировая экономика погружается в долговое болото

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Низкие процентные ставки сделали свое дело — рынок корпоративных облигаций США перешагнул 6 трлн. долларов, практически утроившись с 2007 года. Кроме того, в 2016 г. выпуск долговых бумаг по всему миру установил годовой рекорд, не помешали даже опасения по поводу выборов в США.

«Стоимость заимствования низкая, поэтому имеет смысл занимать», прокомментировала портфельный управляющий DoubleLine Capital Моника Эриксон.

По мнению представителя легендарного PIMCO, данная тенденция присуща любому экономическому циклу, когда стоимость заимствования становится относительно низкой, участники рынка принимаются брать в долг, тем самым сея семена нового экономического спада.

За год было выпущено нового долга на 6,6 триллиона долларов и половина из них приходится на корпорации. Около 3,19 трлн. долларов из них — это облигации, имеющие инвестиционную оценку. Так называемых «мусорных» бумаг было продано на 430 млрд. долларов.

Выпуск долговых бумаг, организованный банками (2016 г., трлн. дол.)


3

Источник: Dealogic

На этом фоне баланс Европейского центрального банка за 10 месяцев 2016 г. увеличился на 810 млрд. долларов, баланс Банка Японии на 640 млрд. долларов.

Таким образом мир постепенно погружается в долговое болото. К сегодняшнему дню по разным оценкам общемировой долг превышает ВВП всех стран в 2,25 раза.

Резюме

Чем больше будет расти долг, тем труднее и больнее будет выбраться из этого болота. Мировая экономика сейчас подсажена на «долговую иглу», без которой у нее начнется ломка и затронет она все страны поголовно, не важно какой уровень левериджа у нее.

Последствий, на наш взгляд, может быть несколько: 1) мировой кризис посерьезнее 2008 г., который продлится несколько лет и приведет к дефолту ряда стран или гиперинфляции; 2) затяжной, возможно на несколько десятилетий, экономический спад и стагнация.

 

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