Нефтяные спекулянты не устояли перед ОПЕК

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В преддверии заседания ОПЕК спекулянты предпочитали закрывать свои длинные позиции по нефти. Так за день до встречи хедж-фонды держали на руках 335,2 тыс. контрактов на рост «черного золота», уменьшив за неделю их количество на 16 тыс. контрактов.

Короткие позиции тоже подверглись сокращению на 17 тыс. контрактов. Таким образом, можно предположить, что участники рынка не были уверены, как же закончится встреча.

Позиции Managed Money Funds


Failed to find diagram 3750.

Источник: cftc.gov

С другой стороны выросла разница между «лонгами» и «шортами» — по состоянию на 29 ноября она составляла 23,1 тыс. контрактов, увеличившись за неделю на 15,6 тыс. Тем самым, все-таки большинство не верило в сделку.

Разница между длинными и короткими позициями на NYMEX


Failed to find diagram 3761.

Источник: cftc.gov

Производители нефти и нефтетрейдеры, в свою очередь, предпочли захеджироваться от падения и увеличили свои короткие позиции почти на 26 тыс. контрактов.

Резюме

Нервозность на счет встречи ОПЕК чувствовалась среди всех участников торгов. Крупнейшие трейдеры Нью-Йоркской товарной биржи также понизили количество открытых позиций и основная цель, на наш взгляд, была страховка от риска.

Учитывая, что на рынке до сих пор разница открытых позиций в пользу «шортов», скорее всего, в ближайшее время мы можем увидеть продолжение ралли на рынке нефти. Одновременно с ним будет расти и производство в США, так как нефтяники будут стараться воспользоваться благоприятной ценовой конъюнктурой и заключать фьючерсные контракты на будущие поставки по комфортной для них цене, что позволит им наращивать добычу.

 

Как быть в курсе всех обновлений?

 

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Другая статистика:

  1. Позиции трейдеров по нефти (NYMEX)
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  3. Позиции трейдеров по рублю
  4. Позиции трейдеров по золоту
  5. Позиции трейдеров по доллару (Мосбиржа)
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