Экономика страны нашла свое дно

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Экономика страны перестала падать. Стоило только снять главу Минэкономразвития, как было найдено дно. Согласно ежемесячному обзору Центрального банка снижение ВВП прекратилось в октябре текущего года.

«По сравнению с предыдущим кварталом с учетом коррекции на сезонность, по оценкам Банка России, снижение ВВП прекратилось, что позволяет говорить о наличии предпосылок для постепенного восстановления экономической активности, которое продолжилось в октябре 2016 года», говорит ЦБ.

Также начала расти производственная активность, прибавив за октябрь 0,3% к предыдущему месяцу. Стоит отметить и стабильную ситуацию а рынке труда — безработица остается на низком уровне в 5,5%, а зарплаты начали расти.

Однако несмотря на это, реальные доходы населения с учетом инфляции продолжили снижаться. На этом фоне население предпочитает сберегать, а не тратить. «Прирост объема кредитов населению в последние месяцы оставался меньше прироста депозитов и чистых процентных платежей. Таким образом, динамика кредитования также не оказала существенной поддержки потребительскому спросу», говорится в обзоре регулятора.

По прогнозу Центрального банка рост потребительской активности начнется не раньше первого полугодия 2017 г.  В этом же году ВВП страны упадет на на 0,5-0,7%.

Резюме

На наш взгляд, полноценный рост экономики начнется только тогда, когда реальные доходы населения начнут увеличиваться, что также приведет к восстановлению потребительской активности.

Начальный импульс может быть дан более высокой рублевой ценой на нефть. Так как инфляционные риски сократились, вполне возможно, что Центральный банк пойдет на этот шаг и искусственно ослабит курс национальной валюты.

 

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  4. Как изменилась структура резервов России за последние 4 года?

 


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