GS: Цены на нефть не превысят 50 долларов за баррель

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Инвестиционный банк Goldman Sachs поменял свой прогноз по ценам на нефть и теперь ожидает дефицита поставок во второй половине 2017 г.

Если в конце сентября банк не верил в заключение сделки между членами ОПЕК, то сейчас он уже по-другому смотрит на нее. По прогнозу GS картель договорится о заморозке добычи на уровне в 33 млн. баррелей в сутки, а соглашение вступит в действие в начале следующего года.

Также инвестдом отметил, что производственные мощности ОПЕК задействованы практически по максимуму. На этом фоне в первом квартале 2017 г. на рынке будет излишнее предложение на уровне в 700 тыс. баррелей в сутки, а вот во втором полугодии перепроизводство сменится дефицитом.

Производственные мощности ОПЕК (млн. бар./сутки)


Источник: eia.gov

В свою очередь, это не помешало банку понизить свой прогноз по ценам на «черное золото». Так Goldman Sachs ожидает, что в 3-м  и 4-м кварталах 2017 г. котировки на бочку нефти марки WTI не превысят 50 долларов. В то время как предыдущие ожидания были выше — 55 и 60 долларов за баррель соответственно.

Причиной тому будет снижение стоимости добычи у других производителей. И цены в 55 долларов за бочку приведут к активизации производства.

Баланс спроса и предложения на рынке нефти


gs

Источник: zerohedge.com

 

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