Италии все сложнее обслуживать свой долг

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Инвесторы переживают за кредитоспособность Италии и продают государственные бумаги страны. За месяц доходность по 10-ти летним гособлигациям выросла с 1,3% до 2,08%.

Масло в огонь подливает и предстоящий референдум о конституционных реформах, инициатором которых является действующий премьер Маттео Ренци. Он, в свою очередь, заявил, что уйдет, если плебисцит провалится.

Распродажа госдолга Италии приводит к тому, что возрастает стоимость заимствования для самой страны.

Согласно ежеквартальному отчету Министерства финансов Италии государственный долг по итогам 3-го квартала 2016 г. составлял почти 1,9 трлн. евро. Средний срок обращения выпущенной долговой бумаги равен 6,8 годам и более 69% всех бумаг — это долгосрочные облигации.

Если по итогам сентября государство могло выпускать 7-ми летними долговые бумаги с доходностью в 0,63%, то по состоянию на 18 ноября инвесторы готовы покупать облигации при доходности в 1,45%. Получается, что за полтора месяца стоимость рефинансирования выросла в 2,3 раза.

На сегодняшний день основной интерес проявляется к коротким бумагам правительства. К примеру, спрос на 3-х летние облигации выше предложения в 1,5 раза, а на 30-ти летние всего лишь в 1,3 раза.

Многие эксперты и экономисты предвещают Италии тяжелые времена, а некоторые называют ее даже банкротом. Остается наблюдать за выплатами по долгам. В ноябре государство необходимо будет погасить 25,7 млрд. евро, в декабре — 27,6 млрд. Однако самым тяжелым месяцев будет февраль 2017 г., когда Риму предстоит выплатить почти 49 млрд. евро.

График погашения госдолга Италии (млн. евро)


Источник: Министерство финансов Италии

Резюме

В случае если распродажи гособлигаций по всему миру продолжатся, то правительство и в правду может в скором будущем столкнуться с трудностями рефинансирования своего долга. На этом фоне страновые риски Италии приблизились к максимальным уровням последних 2-х лет.

Кредитный дефолтный своп (Италия, Ann. PD 40%)


Failed to find diagram 3405.

Источник: Deutsche Bank

Однако не стоит забывать, что в 2012 году доходность по 7-ми летним бумагам государства находилась на уровне в 5-6%. Таким образом, пока это только трудности, а не реальные проблемы. Правда, с тех пор долг страны вырос примерно на 18% в абсолютном выражении.

 

Другая статистика:

  1. Кредитно-дефолтные свопы стран мира
  2. Баланс ЕЦБ
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