Спекулянты оставили без изменения свой настрой по рублю

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Неделя на финансовых рынках прошла относительно спокойно, на фоне чего спекулянты предпочитали не вносить особых корректировок в свои позиции. Согласно данным Комиссии по торговле товарными фьючерсами настроение хедж-фондов осталось практически без изменения.

По итогам 5 рабочих дней они уменьшили свои длинные позиции чуть менее чем на 200 контрактов до 32,7 тыс., количество коротких позиций сократилось на 546 контрактов до 3,2 тыс.

Открытые позиции участников торгов по рублю (Chicago M.Ex., Leveraged funds)


Failed to find diagram 2887.

Источник: cftc.gov

Некомерческие участники рынка предпочли увеличить свои ставки на рубль до 32,8 тыс. контрактов, уменьшив ставки на его падение до 416 контрактов. Таким образом, количество длинных позиций превышает количество коротких более, чем в 78 раз.

Отношение длинных и коротких позиций (Chicago M.Ex., Non-commercial)


Failed to find diagram 2889.

Источник: cftc.gov

Резюме

По итогам данных, опубликованных в пятницу, можно сделать вывод, что настроения на западных рынках по отношению к российскому рублю пока остаются без особых изменений. Возвращение США и России за стол переговоров по поводу сирийского вопроса, снял напряжение на финансовых рынках, тем самым преостановив спекулятивный отток капитала из страны.

Однако, несмотря на веру в рубль, распродажи ОФЗ на этой недели продолжились. Также снижается и спрос на аукционах, проводимых Минфином.

Спрос и предложение по ОФЗ с постоянным доходом (млн. руб.)


Failed to find diagram 2791.

Источник: minfin.ru

Замедляется и поток средств, направляемых на покупку длинных фьючерсов на российскую валюту, — за октябрь их число выросло всего лишь на 2,5 тыс., в то время как месяцем ранее на 9,3 тыс. На наш взгляд, это может говорить о том, что основное движение по укреплению рубля подходит к концу.

 

Другая статистика:

  1. Позиции трейдеров по нефти (NYMEX)
  2. Позиции трейдеров по нефти (Europe)
  3. Позиции трейдеров по рублю
  4. Позиции трейдеров по доллару
  5. Позиции трейдеров по золоту

 

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