Повышение ставки ФРС может привести к потерям в 1,1 трлн. долларов

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Повышение процентной ставки на 1 % приведет к потерям в 1,1 трлн. долларов, сообщает Goldman Sachs. В первую очередь убытки коснутся владельцев облигаций.

Ставка на долгосрочные бумаги окупилась в этом году сторицей благодаря ралли на долговом рынке. Инвесторы, поняв, что слабые экономические данные, приведут к откладыванию ужесточения монетарной политики, принялись скупать облигации, тем самым подняли их стоимость.

При повышении процентных ставок в 90-х и 2000-х цены долгосрочных облигаций падали ощутимее котировок краткосрочных долговых бумаг. Как правило покупатели требуют более существенной компенсации при долгосрочных инвестициях. В этом году средний срок погашения облигаций вырос с 6 до 6,98 лет.

В течение 2016 г. кривая доходностей по гособлигациям США сужалась, против чего в последние годы активно боролся Федрезерв. Считается, что чем уже спред между долгосрочными долговыми бумагами и краткосрочными, тем хуже дела обстоят в экономике страны.

Кривая доходностей гособлигаций США    


Резюме

Так как эта кривая продолжает выравниваться, то получается, что монетарные стимулы не действуют так, как хотелось бы. Американский регулятор, скорее всего, в дальнейшем будет предпринимать действия по расширению спреда доходностей. Вполне возможно, что ФРС пойдет на новое количественное смягчение, одновременно увеличив процентную ставку. Однако ее повышение, на наш взгляд, будет очень осторожным, то есть таких потерь, как предсказывает Goldman Sachs рынки вряд ли увидят.

 

Схожая по тематике статья:

Печатный станок США продолжает свою работу

 


В статье использовались материалы: Goldman Says U.S. Bondholders Risk a $1.1 Trillion Hit if Rates Spike (Bloomberg, 2016)

Автор: Sid Verma 

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