Какова вероятность повышения ставки ФРС?

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Согласно данным Чикагской товарной биржи Федеральная резервная система США не пойдет на повышение ставки на ближайшем заседании, которое состоится 02 ноября текущего года. По состоянию на 07 октября вероятность ужесточения монетарной политики составляла 8,3%.

Вероятность повышения ставки ФРС


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Источник:cmegroup.com

Около 65% участников рынка уверены, что ФРС поднимет свою ставку 14 декабря, и практически все эксперты склоняются к тому, что через год она будет точно выше. Есть и такие, кто видит ее сверх 1% и таких 11,4%.

Также после резкого роста летом текущего года стабилизировалась и долларовая LIBOR, сейчас доходность по 3-х месячной ставке составляет 0,87%, а по 12-месячной около 1,6%. Таким образом, можно говорить, что участники рынка уже давно готовы к ужесточению монетарной политики, медлит только Федрезерв. Американский регулятор объясняет это необходимостью получения достоверных сигналов о стабильности экономики Соединенных Штатов.

Долларовая LIBOR (3 месяца)

Резюме

Чем дольше ФРС отодвигает этот шаг, тем меньше к нему доверия и тем больше непредсказуемости. Сегодня основная процентная ставка США находится в диапазоне от 0,25% до 0,5%. Федрезерв может пойти на отмену этого спреда и закреплении ставки на уровне 0,5%, то есть, с одной стороны она станет выше,но с другой нет.

А делать это надо на ближайшем заседании, иначе регулятора могут обвинить в политической ангажированности к Демократической партии страны.

 

Схожие по тематике статьи:

  1. Политика мировых центральных банков похожа на безумие
  2. Повышение ставки ФРС не так страшно для развивающихся рынков

 

Другая статистика:

  1. Статистика ФРС
  2. Объемы золота в резервах центральных банков мира
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