На рынке золота назрела коррекция?

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С начала текущего года цены на золото выросли с 1060 до 1326 долларов за тройскую унцию, прибавив более чем 25%. Инвесторы, сомневаясь в стабильности европейской и американской экономик, предпочитали вкладывать свои средства в драгоценный металл. Однако с конца июня-начала июля рост практически остановился, а август впервые за последние 7 лет стал отрицательным для золота.

Несмотря на полугодовалое ралли на рынке металла, крупнейшие трейдеры Нью-Йоркской товарной биржи ставили на его падение — их чистая короткая позиция с начала года выросла на 47%, в то время как длинная только на 13%.

Gross-позиции ТОП-4 трейдеров


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Источник: cftc.gov

В то же самое время хедж-фонды активно наращивали свои покупки желтого металла — количество длинных позиций с начала июня превышает более чем в 8 раз количество коротких.

Отношение длинных и коротких позиций (MMF)


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Источник: cftc.gov

На этом фоне за 9 месяцев 2016 года инвесторы вложили более 12 млрд. долларов в фонды, инвестирующие в золото, но с конца июня приток средств остановился.

Кумулятивный поток средств в ETF, инвестирующий в золото (GLD, млн. дол.) 


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Источник: etf.com

Замедлился спрос и со стороны основных покупателей металла — центральных банков. За второй квартал 2016 года регуляторы приобрели около 60 метрических тонн золота. Это уже третий квартал снижения объемов закупок и самый худший показатель за последние 2,5 года.

Объемы покупок золота центральными банками мира


Gold

Источник: bloomberg.com

Снижение интереса к желтому металлу можно объяснить еще и тем, что волатильность на финансовых рынках находится на минимумах последних 2,5 лет.

Индекс волатильности


Волатильность

Источник: bloomberg.com

Резюме

Вполне возможно, что участники торгов не хотят покупать актив по текущим ценам, считая их завышенными. Также в связи с отсутствием роста стоимости золота инвесторы, на наш взгляд, предпочтут зафиксировать прибыль, а, учитывая огромное количество открытых длинных позиций по драгоценному металлу небольшая коррекция может обернуться полномасштабным снижением.

 

Другая статистика:

  1. Позиции трейдеров по золоту
  2. Потоки средств в ETF (золото)
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