ОПЕК мухлюет с данными о добыче?

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Добыча нефти странами ОПЕК сократилась до 33,085 млн. баррелей в сутки. Месячное снижение составило 220 тыс. бочек в день, а если сравнивать с отчетом месячной давности, то производство упало аж на 785 тыс. баррелей.

Согласно данным ОПЕК, опубликованным 18 января, главный игрок — Саудовская Аравия, добывала в декабре в среднем 10,47 млн. баррелей в день. Второй по значимости член картеля — Ирак, увеличил производство до 4,63 млн. баррелей в сутки. Правда, если верить ноябрьскому обзору, то объем извлекаемой из недр нефти напротив упал на 168 тыс. бочек.

Разница в объемах добычи (декабрьский и январский отчеты ОПЕК)


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Источник: ОПЕК

Обратимся к последнему отчету. За декабрь добыча Саудовской Аравии сократилась на 149 тыс. баррелей, Нигерии на 113 тыс. Производство выросло у Анголы и Ирака, по 35,6 и 42,6 тыс. баррелей соответственно.

Изменение добычи к ноябрю (тыс. бар.)


12

Источник: ОПЕК

Также стоит отметить, что профицит «черного золота» на рынке в 4 квартале 2016 г. составил 1,5 млн. баррелей в день, после достигнутого баланса в 3 квартале. Обращаем Ваше внимание, что это не смогло обвалить цены на сырье. Таким образом, можно предположить, что стоимость нефти определяется не только рыночными законами, но и волей трейдеров с Уолл-Стрит.

Вполне возможно, что нефтяные гиганты начинают зарабатывать первые трофеи от долгосрочного плана низких цен на сырье. Они на днях объявили о заключенных сделках по покупке сланцевых месторождений и компаний.

Резюме

Однозначно доверять методам подсчета объемов добычи нефти нельзя, так как они существенно разнятся от агентства к агентству. Вполне возможно, что данный отчет мог быть подогнан специально для СМИ, чтобы снизить давление на котировки.

Еще один пересмотр данных был произведен Министерством энергетики США, там производство сланцевой нефти выросло почти на 200 тыс. бочек в день.

Кто-то явно не заинтересован в высоких ценах на нефть. Со временем поймем кто же это.

 

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  2. Спрос физлиц на валюту упал на 43%
  3. Добыча сланцевой нефти подскочила на 178 тыс. баррелей
  4. Российский импорт непреклонно догоняет экспорт
  5. Себестоимость сланцевой нефти

Другая статистика:

  1. Добыча нефти по странам
  2. Баланс рынка нефти

 

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